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Why Adjusted Statistics Predictions Deviate from Vegas

Frequently, AdjustedStatistics will provide predictions that deviate from the mean of the predictions published from the gambling industry. We view this as a very good thing. Whether it’s the spread, the totals, or the moneylines, we actually hope to see gaps between what our system reveals versus the bottom lines determined by the sportsbooks – especially those in Las Vegas. 

The bigger the deviation, the more attention it deserves.

Sportsbooks generally don’t set their lines according to what they think the actual outcome of a game might be. Their job is to set the lines and totals as close as possible to where and how they think the betting public will place their money on a given game, on both sides. Vegas makes its money in the books by halving the total money bet on a game-by-game basis. Why is that? Because the sportsbooks reap their profits on the 10% they charge for each bet. Thus, if there is a negative lopsided betting outcome for a game, your average sportsbook would pay away its profits to those on the winning side.

Why is Adjusted Statistics Different?

The beauty of the Adjusted Statistics algorithm is that it doesn’t care who’s better where or even why. All it cares about is determining the most likely outcome for a given game, and it uses performance-driven data to reach those predictions. Whether the whole world is betting on one side of a spread or not makes little difference to our algorithm, and this is where our customers stand to reap the benefits.

When one of our predicted outcomes deviates substantially from the odds Vegas has set, we perk up. Frequently in these circumstances, our algorithm has revealed an outcome unrelated to the emotional stakes of the betting public on a particular game. 

Let’s face it: we all know that emotions can often obscure a bettor’s ability to make a fact-based decision about the next big game. What many people don’t understand is that the spreads in Vegas have to account for emotional betting. Adjusted Statistics does not.

Sure, our predictive modeling will often wind up remarkably close to the lines set by the sportsbooks. However, the true potential of the Adjusted Statistics model is revealed when people follow the deviations from conventional thinking in Vegas and arbitrage various moneylines to their advantage.

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