Analyzing Florida St. vs. Georgia Tech 11/12/2020
Or perhaps we should say, Statalyzing Florida State versus Georgia Tech? Adjusted Statistics has a long history of success in identifying and handicapping game totals and spreads at a better clip than Las Vegas. Beating betting lines is big time business in America, and Adjusted Statistics uses the most valuable commodity available to draw it’s conclusions: data.
Unfortunately, in this era of Covid, there’s substantially less data available at the start of this truncated football season as there would be in years past. Specifically, as a model, AS relies on early season non-conference games for data and tightens up as more outcomes and games are played throughout a full college football season. Unfortunately, that means the early part of a season has more variance than typical with only one (and in some conferences zero) non conference games.
The model will continue to improve, but lets take a look at one big success story from Adjusted Statistics in the first real week of college football: Georgia Tech versus Florida State, at the mid-day time slot.
First, lets take a look at the final vegas lines for this game: the Florida St. Seminoles were a -12.5 favorite, and the total for the game was set at 52. Adjusted Statistics had the Seminoles pegged as just a -10.6 favorite, and the total for the game predicted at just 43.2 So AS had Florida St. winning by 1.9 less than the Vegas line, and also had the game scoring 8.8 less total points.
Now, remember, the most useful application for Adjusted Statistics is identifying potential trend lines and variances between our predictions and what Las Vegas sees. It is not necessarily to predict the actual final scores of games, and it’s important to keep that in mind as we continue to work through our analysis.
Now, of course no one, not AS nor Las Vegas foretasted this game with complete accuracy. In fact, Georgia Tech won outright, 16-13. On top of that, the game’s total was as anemic 29 points, well under the 43.2 of Adjusted Statistics, and staggeringly beneath the bookmaker O/U of 52.
The key to understanding why this game is a positive outcome for Adjusted Statistics’s algorithm is the trend line before the game. Lets revisit the final Vegas lines versus the Adjusted Stats lines. In both instances, Adjusted Statistics predicted a lower spread for Florida State of 1.9 points, as well as a lower scoring total game by 8.8 points.
To me, as someone looking for trends, that is two that pop right out: We have a lower scoring total prediction and a shrinking of the line for Florida State. So Adjusted Statistics is telling me this game will be tighter than Vegas feels, and Georgia Tech has a good shot to play within the point spread versus Florida State. So what do I do with that information if I’m placing bets? I’m taking the Under, and I’m taking Georgia Tech plus the points. That’s two different wager opportunities, and a $100 bet on that two outcome parlay would have yielded $260. Now, the adjusted stats logarithm doesn’t always work some cleanly, nor do the results in a sporting even, but this is a perfect illustration of the kind of trends someone can identify and potentially capitalize on using the Adjusted Statistics model. Not necessarily getting lost in the idea of correctly picking an upset, but where are points being left on the table.
As I mentioned in the beginning, the algorithm gets more accurate with more data as a season grinds on, and there were tons of monumental upsets this past weekend. Just ask the Big 12 how they feel about Arkansas St., Louisiana Tech, and Coastal Carolina. No one had those games called correctly, including Adjusted Statistics. But that’s not the best application of the tool in the first place. But with more games played and more data, the algorithm will continue to improve as the season marches forward. But the outcome of the Georgia Tech and Florida State game is the kind of data and trend spotting that can give a hobby gambler or a professional an advantage or an additional data point for a weekend slate of games.